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In 2013, the authors published a paper entitled “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, estimating that 47% of U.S. jobs are at risk of automation.
Since then, numerous studies have emerged, arriving at very different conclusions. In particular, one study published by a group of researchers at the University of Mannheim suggests that only 9% of jobs are exposed to automation. And more recently, a study by the OECD suggests that it is actually 14%, with a further “32% of jobs have a risk of between 50 and 70% pointing to the possibility of significant change in the way these jobs are carried out as a result of automation.”
Many policymakers naturally find it hard to make sense of these results. Which study is right? And why do they arrive at very different conclusions? In this article, the authors seek to explain why these estimates diverge.
